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Punished or redeemed?

Published at: 20-03-2020

Posted on: March 20th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

I recently posted an unorthodox talk with the chief-economist of the Romanian National Bank, Valentin Lazea, when we agreed that the world’s economic development model was no longer sustainable. As a result, economic theories need to radically change and focus on GDP per capita growth and not just GDP growth. Neither does human civilization stand a […]

Is there a new crisis around the corner?

Published at: 15-03-2020

Posted on: March 15th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

This is the question on everybody’s lips with the 2008 financial crisis still lingering in our mind. Not only did the stock market experience a similar dive over the past days but it has actually exceeded the scale of the previous crisis. On Thursday, March 12, the US Dow Jones and S&P 500 stock indices […]

Chief Economist: Many economists will call me mad, a traitor of my trade

Published at: 01-03-2020

Posted on: March 1st, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

I am talking this week with Valentin Lazea, chief-economist of the National Bank of Romania whose opinions do not involve the liability of his institution. Together I want to look at how much demographic growth, the obsession of governments, is a pre-requisite of economic prosperity. RC: Valentin, thank you for accepting my invitation. I am […]

The Emperor Wears No Clothes

Published at: 16-02-2020

Posted on: February 16th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

A deep concern is haunting part of the Western elites vented as well in the main stream media: economic success is no longer within the exclusive remit of liberal societies. China`s spectacular developments in the past decades and its dominant position in spite of the autocratic political regime that originated them have prompted analysts to […]

Main central banks laid down their arms

Published at: 19-01-2020

Posted on: January 19th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

In a recent report, the Institute of International Finance estimates that global debt has reached a new record high, 253 trillion dollars by the end of September. The analysis considers that this is debt accumulated mainly by governments and non-financial institutions. The report highlighted the major role that low interest rates played in spurring funding […]

Is Romania on the verge of war?

Published at: 13-01-2020

Posted on: January 13th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

The recent events in the Middle East that led to an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran had some otherwise respectable analysts jump to rash conclusions about Romania’s possible involvement in the conflict. I am intrigued that these concerns did not emerge when the Romanian military became engaged in war zones, such as […]

Companies without seniors will have to buy them

Published at: 06-01-2020

Posted on: January 6th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

The dire demographics have us worry about how the world or the country will look like with a more aged population.  I believe that this growing concern mostly explains the success of my “Welcome to the land of the elders “ post where I approached from several angles the paradigm shift that the society and businesses […]

The wrong approach to cancelling special retirement plans

Published at: 22-12-2019

Posted on: December 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

A good-quality change management requires thorough planning of change, dosage and good communication, assessment of possible sources of resistance and ways to mitigate it and why not, compromise. Excellent ideas may get buried by a massive negative reaction from those affected. At the end of the day, any change involves humans and most humans abhor […]

Populist decisions are pushing borrowing costs up, not S&P

Published at: 13-12-2019

Posted on: December 13th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Romania’s credit-rating outlook from stable to negative seems to have come as a surprise. I believe that the agency’s explanation was sufficiently clear to exclude any speculations: the large spending deviations of the former government will be difficult to correct by the current government […]

Stranded in the maze of the last crisis

Published at: 06-12-2019

Posted on: December 6th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

It was a bullet whizzing past us, investors, bankers, employees, employers, consumers, deposit holders and the list could go on. The 2008 crisis, by its complexity, has had a serious and profound impact on financial and economic systems, in the developed economies, in particular but also on the rest of the world by a spillover […]

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