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A full employment recession?

Published at: 15-01-2023

Posted on: January 15th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

We are probably facing one of the most anticipated recessions. There seems to be a general consensus that 2023 will be the year we see a negative GDP growth for at least two consecutive quarters in a sizable part of the world economy. The IMF estimates that half of Europe’s economy and a third of […]

Who will be the superpowers of the clean energy era?

Published at: 09-01-2023

Posted on: January 9th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

Human civilization has reached the tipping point in an area vital for its very existence: energy resources. Undoubtedly, the main issue is not depletion thereof, but managing it in such a way that the planet’s climate deterioration is cut short. And to take the challenges even further, such a transition has to be managed in […]

Why a return to QE would be disastrous ?

Published at: 02-12-2022

Posted on: December 2nd, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

“Economics is not an exact science. It’s a combination of art and elements of science”, said Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Central banks seem to have forgotten this lesson in recent decades. Banning central banks from purchasing the debt of their own country has been, until the […]

ESG? Lose the hypocrisy, please!

Published at: 06-11-2022

Posted on: November 6th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The ESG acronym has become increasingly pervasive in corporate communication. “E” is the first letter of the word “environment”, suggesting the importance of environmental protection in conducting economic activities. “S” is the first letter of the word “social” and stresses the fact that businesses must attach due importance to the people and their relations with […]

The “war of the century” is not over

Published at: 17-10-2022

Posted on: October 17th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

In my comment called  “The war of the century which will define our future”, made at the end of 2016, I pointed out that globalization damaged the win-win balance between two essential factors of production: Labor and Capital. Basically, I explained that, while globalization boosted the number of opportunities/the demand for capital, the supply of […]

We are the weak link in Ukraine’s defense war

Published at: 04-09-2022

Posted on: September 4th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

I recently attended a conference on regional security issues with remarkable international participation. Evidently, the paramount topic in all presentations and debates was the war in Ukraine: what could have prevented it, how it is unfolding, what will be the wins/losses for Ukraine and Russia. And, given the military assessments summarized below, it should come […]

The Romanian yield curve has inverted. What does it mean?

Published at: 31-07-2022

Posted on: July 31st, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The yield curve plots the returns on government bonds by maturity, starting from the shortest and going up to the longest ones. The chart is closely watched as it can provide interesting indicators about the investors’ perception of future economic trends. Usually, the yield curve slopes upward. Short maturities come with lower yields and, as […]

The paradox of Western capitalism chipping away at the foundation of the very system it created

Published at: 03-06-2022

Posted on: June 3rd, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The economic and military armament of the big illiberal powers – Russia and China, in particular – was achieved with capital originating in liberal countries. The capital’s unscrupulous pursuit of globalization opportunities after the fall of communism thinned the middle class “at home” and created in autocratic countries economies so strong that the capitalist society […]

Don’t be afraid of the recession

Published at: 01-05-2022

Posted on: May 1st, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

Over the last 6 months, we have heard countless comments about the delicate situation faced by Central Banks, forced to make a rather impossible choice: either to take on inflation, or try bypass recession. This is indeed an impossible choice since a continued increase in interest rates meant to hold back inflation would eventually lead […]

Superficiality and imposture can seriously damage national security

Published at: 24-04-2022

Posted on: April 24th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

In recent weeks, we have witnessed a large number of debates, unfortunately including people who can not be suspected of malice or deception, which referred to the cowardice of Romania and those who lead it. The labeling was a consequence of the fact that, while most countries in the region took care to constantly make […]

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