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The common denominator of the current polycrisis

Published at: 03-03-2023

Posted on: March 3rd, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

A new term is now popular to describe the complex context in which we find ourselves: polycrisis. Well-known economist Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard University, in a Financial Times interview attributed the term to Adam Tooze, an English historian and professor at Columbia University. The term polycrisis aims to capture […]

How “naked” are the big debtors?

Published at: 04-02-2023

Posted on: February 4th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

The process of quantitative tightening that the major central banks are currently engaged in makes many people worryingly remember one of Warren Buffett’s famous sayings: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. Such concern is understandable. The decade of ultra-low interest rates has fueled risky behavior on the part […]

A turning point for world demography seen from two angles

Published at: 21-01-2023

Posted on: January 21st, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

2022 was a truly historic moment for the demographic evolution of the world’s most populous country. For the first time in 60 years, China’s population recorded a year-on-year decline. The Chinese ended 2022 850 thousand fewer. Unlike 60 years ago, when the population decline was caused by the famine that followed the “Great Leap Forward” […]

A full employment recession?

Published at: 15-01-2023

Posted on: January 15th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

We are probably facing one of the most anticipated recessions. There seems to be a general consensus that 2023 will be the year we see a negative GDP growth for at least two consecutive quarters in a sizable part of the world economy. The IMF estimates that half of Europe’s economy and a third of […]

Who will be the superpowers of the clean energy era?

Published at: 09-01-2023

Posted on: January 9th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

Human civilization has reached the tipping point in an area vital for its very existence: energy resources. Undoubtedly, the main issue is not depletion thereof, but managing it in such a way that the planet’s climate deterioration is cut short. And to take the challenges even further, such a transition has to be managed in […]

Why a return to QE would be disastrous ?

Published at: 02-12-2022

Posted on: December 2nd, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

“Economics is not an exact science. It’s a combination of art and elements of science”, said Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Central banks seem to have forgotten this lesson in recent decades. Banning central banks from purchasing the debt of their own country has been, until the […]

ESG? Lose the hypocrisy, please!

Published at: 06-11-2022

Posted on: November 6th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The ESG acronym has become increasingly pervasive in corporate communication. “E” is the first letter of the word “environment”, suggesting the importance of environmental protection in conducting economic activities. “S” is the first letter of the word “social” and stresses the fact that businesses must attach due importance to the people and their relations with […]

The “war of the century” is not over

Published at: 17-10-2022

Posted on: October 17th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

In my comment called  “The war of the century which will define our future”, made at the end of 2016, I pointed out that globalization damaged the win-win balance between two essential factors of production: Labor and Capital. Basically, I explained that, while globalization boosted the number of opportunities/the demand for capital, the supply of […]

We are the weak link in Ukraine’s defense war

Published at: 04-09-2022

Posted on: September 4th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

I recently attended a conference on regional security issues with remarkable international participation. Evidently, the paramount topic in all presentations and debates was the war in Ukraine: what could have prevented it, how it is unfolding, what will be the wins/losses for Ukraine and Russia. And, given the military assessments summarized below, it should come […]

The Romanian yield curve has inverted. What does it mean?

Published at: 31-07-2022

Posted on: July 31st, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The yield curve plots the returns on government bonds by maturity, starting from the shortest and going up to the longest ones. The chart is closely watched as it can provide interesting indicators about the investors’ perception of future economic trends. Usually, the yield curve slopes upward. Short maturities come with lower yields and, as […]

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