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Romania, this time is different!

Published at: 03-09-2023

Posted on: September 3rd, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

It is already common knowledge that, in the process of its accession to the EU and afterwards, Romania used only a part of the European funds it had at its disposal for development and accelerating convergence. Looking at the infrastructure that Hungary and Poland have built during the past decades by maximizing the absorption of […]

Will Romania face an exchange rate crisis?

Published at: 27-08-2023

Posted on: August 27th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

A recent study by well-known Japanese bank Nomura nominates Romania as the second most vulnerable country to an exchange rate crisis after Egypt. In third and fourth place are Turkey and Sri Lanka, respectively. The alert threshold is defined as the value of 100 of the index, a breach of this threshold being interpreted as […]

Bad news for populists: in the end, economics always wins

Published at: 18-06-2023

Posted on: June 18th, 2023 by RaduC No Comments

Joining the eurozone was seen as a miraculous solution to all the economic problems the country had faced so far. Therefore, any way of achieving this goal, including manipulating economic statistics, was perfectly justified. With a debt of over 100% of GDP and a budget deficit of over 3%, Greece would have had no chance […]

We are the weak link in Ukraine’s defense war

Published at: 04-09-2022

Posted on: September 4th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

I recently attended a conference on regional security issues with remarkable international participation. Evidently, the paramount topic in all presentations and debates was the war in Ukraine: what could have prevented it, how it is unfolding, what will be the wins/losses for Ukraine and Russia. And, given the military assessments summarized below, it should come […]

The Romanian yield curve has inverted. What does it mean?

Published at: 31-07-2022

Posted on: July 31st, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

The yield curve plots the returns on government bonds by maturity, starting from the shortest and going up to the longest ones. The chart is closely watched as it can provide interesting indicators about the investors’ perception of future economic trends. Usually, the yield curve slopes upward. Short maturities come with lower yields and, as […]

Don’t be afraid of the recession

Published at: 01-05-2022

Posted on: May 1st, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

Over the last 6 months, we have heard countless comments about the delicate situation faced by Central Banks, forced to make a rather impossible choice: either to take on inflation, or try bypass recession. This is indeed an impossible choice since a continued increase in interest rates meant to hold back inflation would eventually lead […]

Superficiality and imposture can seriously damage national security

Published at: 24-04-2022

Posted on: April 24th, 2022 by RaduC No Comments

In recent weeks, we have witnessed a large number of debates, unfortunately including people who can not be suspected of malice or deception, which referred to the cowardice of Romania and those who lead it. The labeling was a consequence of the fact that, while most countries in the region took care to constantly make […]

Will emerging markets be the source of the next crisis?

Published at: 28-11-2021

Posted on: November 28th, 2021 by RaduC No Comments

After a long period of “blue sky” when any sign of a dark cloud was removed by the extremely low central bank interest rates and by investors’ frantic exhilaration (irrational, some would venture to say), emerging markets have started to become a serious cause for concern. Firstly, the overall macroeconomic landscape is about to turn […]

Moody’s tells us on whom should we pin our hopes

Published at: 17-10-2021

Posted on: October 17th, 2021 by RaduC No Comments

Following decisions expected with some concern, Standard&Poor’s and Moody’s rating agencies have reaffirmed Romania’s rating. The concern was coming from the fact that a lower rating would have downgraded us to the non-investment grade category (junk). Such a label would have made financing the government deficit both more challenging and expensive and would have significantly […]

The gift Gazprom received

Published at: 12-09-2021

Posted on: September 12th, 2021 by RaduC No Comments

The gas market crisis in Romania, despite the existing reserves in the Black Sea, makes us wonder if the situation was avoidable and how quickly it will be resolved. In order to shed light on these issues, I invited this week Mr. Dumitru Chisalita, university professor, president of the Smart Energy Association, oil and gas […]

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