Home page About me Thoughts for the weekend // Romania //The World My guests Contact

The European Chief Prosecutor saga, the euro area saga

Published at: 05-04-2019

Posted on: April 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The saga of appointing a European Chief Prosecutor goes on, but the appointment process seems to have hit a wall. Neither the European Parliament, nor the Council of the EU is willing to give up on their candidate. The two institutions are the two European co-legislators whose work is underpinned by the principle of co-decision […]

Lessons for emerging economies, Romania included

Published at: 24-03-2019

Posted on: March 24th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The US Treasury yield curve has inverted as 3-month yield tops the 10-year yield. This is the first time that this has happened since 2007, and the WSJ noted that the move had preceded every recession since 1975. As the clock is ticking towards a new recession (or crisis?) the question on everybody`s lips is: […]

Romania – The next will be a government of sacrifice

Published at: 22-02-2019

Posted on: February 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

And that will happen irrespective of the political leanings of the party. This should not take us by surprise. It comes with the procyclical policies which have been the mainstay of Romania`s development over the last decades, a country that boasts the highest level of economic volatility in the EU. It brought on record growth […]

Who here wants euros?

Published at: 08-02-2019

Posted on: February 8th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Romania has a new target date to join the eurozone:2024. That was an occasion for me to update the graph that tracks the many deadlines to join the eurozone that Romania has had over the years. The arrows start from when the announcement was made and stop in the expected year of accession. As you […]

The future of the Romanian mandatory private pensions hangs in the balance

Published at: 03-02-2019

Posted on: February 3rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

No business in the world is possible unless one condition is met: that both clients and shareholders perceive it as being useful to them. Should one of the two partners fail to see the benefit is enough to start questioning its future. Bloomberg announced that the treason charge against supermarkets by president Erdogan for their […]

On the trinity for the economic agnostics

Published at: 25-01-2019

Posted on: January 25th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

“Somebody asked me the other day if I saw a threat of a self-induced crisis in Romania despite a stable international environment. A legitimate question because, in my opinion, if the 2008 world crisis hadn`t happened Romania might have been carried on with the massive current account deficit at the time. Because capital inflows would […]

The wealth destruction of the Romanian households

Published at: 11-01-2019

Posted on: January 11th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

I know that it sounds grand and dramatic. Mainly in Romanian, as in the Anglo-Saxon financial literature the notion of „wealth destruction” does not herald a piece of tabloid news. The concept is as serious as it gets, discussed in earnest and debated even at academic tables. A Reuters title announced that 2008 alone saw […]

The failures are also ours

Published at: 04-01-2019

Posted on: January 4th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

At the beginning of the `90s when I started my studies to transition from being an aircraft engineer to a management consultant, one of my English professors conducted a survey. As a specialist in organizational behavior, he wanted to assess how much the then Romanian CEOs were aware of the fact that the future of […]

Collapsing ROE in Romania’s financial services – Is this all Child’s Play to you?

Published at: 23-12-2018

Posted on: December 23rd, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

In a discussion I had before the Emergency Ordinance (EM) issued by the Romania Government bringing a whole host of new taxes and duties was voted in, an important person was telling me that: “To assume that a political decision will be overturned based on technical grounds is unconceivable. This has never happened before”. Here […]

Crisis or recession?

Published at: 07-12-2018

Posted on: December 7th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

There is a long-standing misunderstanding in the public mind. It must be corrected because it is significant. Many people ask when the next crisis is going to strike again, without clearly discriminating between recession and a full-blown crisis. A recession is due to follow relatively soon because it is part of cyclical economic changes which […]

I want to be notified about new articles concerning Romania ,

or The World