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Chief Economist: Many economists will call me mad, a traitor of my trade

Published at: 01-03-2020

Posted on: March 1st, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

I am talking this week with Valentin Lazea, chief-economist of the National Bank of Romania whose opinions do not involve the liability of his institution. Together I want to look at how much demographic growth, the obsession of governments, is a pre-requisite of economic prosperity. RC: Valentin, thank you for accepting my invitation. I am […]

Is Romania on the verge of war?

Published at: 13-01-2020

Posted on: January 13th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

The recent events in the Middle East that led to an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran had some otherwise respectable analysts jump to rash conclusions about Romania’s possible involvement in the conflict. I am intrigued that these concerns did not emerge when the Romanian military became engaged in war zones, such as […]

Companies without seniors will have to buy them

Published at: 06-01-2020

Posted on: January 6th, 2020 by RaduC No Comments

The dire demographics have us worry about how the world or the country will look like with a more aged population.  I believe that this growing concern mostly explains the success of my “Welcome to the land of the elders “ post where I approached from several angles the paradigm shift that the society and businesses […]

The wrong approach to cancelling special retirement plans

Published at: 22-12-2019

Posted on: December 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

A good-quality change management requires thorough planning of change, dosage and good communication, assessment of possible sources of resistance and ways to mitigate it and why not, compromise. Excellent ideas may get buried by a massive negative reaction from those affected. At the end of the day, any change involves humans and most humans abhor […]

Populist decisions are pushing borrowing costs up, not S&P

Published at: 13-12-2019

Posted on: December 13th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Romania’s credit-rating outlook from stable to negative seems to have come as a surprise. I believe that the agency’s explanation was sufficiently clear to exclude any speculations: the large spending deviations of the former government will be difficult to correct by the current government […]

Happy anniversary Romania! Farewell Bessarabia.

Published at: 01-12-2019

Posted on: December 1st, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

1918 was a watershed moment for Romania and will remain an exceptional year in its history. The stars aligned into a great conjunction that not even the most upbeat dared to dream of. Historian Lucian Boia noticed that the outbreak of World War I confronted Romanian politicians with a huge dilemma: join the Triple Entente […]

Sweep it from under the carpet

Published at: 23-11-2019

Posted on: November 23rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

To rise up and go it alone against the establishment is not an easily made decision. Despite corporate managers and governments urging transparency, ethical behaviour or the flagging of any unfair or outrageous behaviours, the truth is that, more often than not, such calls are mere publicity stunts. On more than one occasion did such […]

Consumers don’t predict, but compound recession

Published at: 17-11-2019

Posted on: November 17th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

One of the “compelling” arguments that those who refute the danger of the economy slowing down and sliding towards recession put forward is the Romanian consumers` appetite which shows no sign of abating. And why would it while consumer sentiment is still running high as the graph below illustrates. Look harder however, and a gloomier […]

Central banks buy hundreds of tons of gold. What about us?

Published at: 23-08-2019

Posted on: August 23rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Bloomberg is signaling the fact that in the first six months of the year countries all over the world have bought over 370 tons of gold, pushing the demand for the precious metal to a three-month high. This has caused gold price to climb to the highest level in the last six years. The Russian […]

70 percent of Romania’s military equipment dates back to the Soviet era

Published at: 05-08-2019

Posted on: August 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

This is the second part of my talk with retired lieutenant general Alexandru Grumaz. RC: Given the competition for army digitization, what should Romania`s endowment strategy look like? AG: We should have a very clear understanding of what our specific needs are based first and foremost on the national interest, military doctrine and the assessment of […]

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