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Forget about positive real interest rates!

Published at: 05-07-2019

Posted on: July 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

In a recent public intervention at the start of its new term, the Romanian Governor of the Central Bank, Mugur Isarescu, gave us some interesting insights into the local FX and money market developments. Practicing what he calls “FX intervention using moral suasion”, he warned that the NBR will not allow the Romanian local currency […]

Extrapolation or disruption?

Published at: 23-06-2019

Posted on: June 23rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

I recently had the chance to participate in the INSEAD Alumni Forum Europe 2019 reunion along with 600 participants, first-class panelists on topical subjects. A wonderful occasion to catch up on how the members of the economic elite in Europe and elsewhere are thinking. The main recurring idea of the debates, including the INSEAD dean`s […]

Do you really know what Europeans voted for?

Published at: 02-06-2019

Posted on: June 2nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

One week after the European elections, the results continue to generate comments and assertions.  Most analyses tend to converge upon the idea that, fortunately, nationalist, populist and parties claiming sovereignty failed to make significant gains or anyhow, they stayed below levels initially feared. Voter mobilization which resulted in a turnout of more than 50%, almost […]

Shrinking population=economic decline?

Published at: 26-05-2019

Posted on: May 26th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Gross Domestic Product, the GDP, is a measure of the added value produced in a country. It is stubbornly tracked and mentioned to trace national economic changes. GDP growth has been traditionally the sole desire of economic and political elites. Any dip (negative growth in economists` lingo) in the GDP is closely scrutinized and two […]

The key to the survival of the planet? A group of countries never seen before.

Published at: 14-05-2019

Posted on: May 14th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Human civilization is faced with unprecedented challenges caused by a mixture of economic, demographic and climate-related factors. We would be misguided to imagine that “orthodox” solutions cautiously and slowly applied could actually work. It won`t happen. They will yield no results or if they do, it will be too late. What is required is a […]

The Challenging Rise of China

Published at: 22-04-2019

Posted on: April 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The globalization of the last decades has undeniably led to less poverty and higher standards of living for a significant number of people in developing countries. It has helped reduce worldwide economic polarization at the expense of increased social polarization in the developed countries. China is probably the most revealing success story as to how […]

The missing pillar of Europe`s political stability

Published at: 14-04-2019

Posted on: April 14th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The political trends in Europe are worrying. Rising populist or nationalist parties overshadow the mainstream parties and thus endanger the European construction. As I already explained in a number of posts, in my opinion, the primary cause of the situation is economy-related. The mechanism which made economic prosperity for the European citizens after WWII and […]

The European Chief Prosecutor saga, the euro area saga

Published at: 05-04-2019

Posted on: April 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The saga of appointing a European Chief Prosecutor goes on, but the appointment process seems to have hit a wall. Neither the European Parliament, nor the Council of the EU is willing to give up on their candidate. The two institutions are the two European co-legislators whose work is underpinned by the principle of co-decision […]

Lessons for emerging economies, Romania included

Published at: 24-03-2019

Posted on: March 24th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The US Treasury yield curve has inverted as 3-month yield tops the 10-year yield. This is the first time that this has happened since 2007, and the WSJ noted that the move had preceded every recession since 1975. As the clock is ticking towards a new recession (or crisis?) the question on everybody`s lips is: […]

Romania – The next will be a government of sacrifice

Published at: 22-02-2019

Posted on: February 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

And that will happen irrespective of the political leanings of the party. This should not take us by surprise. It comes with the procyclical policies which have been the mainstay of Romania`s development over the last decades, a country that boasts the highest level of economic volatility in the EU. It brought on record growth […]

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