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Sweep it from under the carpet

Published at: 23-11-2019

Posted on: November 23rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

To rise up and go it alone against the establishment is not an easily made decision. Despite corporate managers and governments urging transparency, ethical behaviour or the flagging of any unfair or outrageous behaviours, the truth is that, more often than not, such calls are mere publicity stunts. On more than one occasion did such […]

Consumers don’t predict, but compound recession

Published at: 17-11-2019

Posted on: November 17th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

One of the “compelling” arguments that those who refute the danger of the economy slowing down and sliding towards recession put forward is the Romanian consumers` appetite which shows no sign of abating. And why would it while consumer sentiment is still running high as the graph below illustrates. Look harder however, and a gloomier […]

Central banks buy hundreds of tons of gold. What about us?

Published at: 23-08-2019

Posted on: August 23rd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Bloomberg is signaling the fact that in the first six months of the year countries all over the world have bought over 370 tons of gold, pushing the demand for the precious metal to a three-month high. This has caused gold price to climb to the highest level in the last six years. The Russian […]

70 percent of Romania’s military equipment dates back to the Soviet era

Published at: 05-08-2019

Posted on: August 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

This is the second part of my talk with retired lieutenant general Alexandru Grumaz. RC: Given the competition for army digitization, what should Romania`s endowment strategy look like? AG: We should have a very clear understanding of what our specific needs are based first and foremost on the national interest, military doctrine and the assessment of […]

The US-Russia arms control architecture risks collapse

Published at: 29-07-2019

Posted on: July 29th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

I am talking this week with retired lieutenant general Alexandru Grumaz*, who throughout his professional career held senior positions within the Ministry of National Defense, as head of the Department of Defense Resource Management, director of the Integrated Defense Planning Directorate or Arms Inspector. He is currently running the Security Analysis and Studies Center. This […]

Forget about positive real interest rates!

Published at: 05-07-2019

Posted on: July 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

In a recent public intervention at the start of its new term, the Romanian Governor of the Central Bank, Mugur Isarescu, gave us some interesting insights into the local FX and money market developments. Practicing what he calls “FX intervention using moral suasion”, he warned that the NBR will not allow the Romanian local currency […]

The European Chief Prosecutor saga, the euro area saga

Published at: 05-04-2019

Posted on: April 5th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The saga of appointing a European Chief Prosecutor goes on, but the appointment process seems to have hit a wall. Neither the European Parliament, nor the Council of the EU is willing to give up on their candidate. The two institutions are the two European co-legislators whose work is underpinned by the principle of co-decision […]

Lessons for emerging economies, Romania included

Published at: 24-03-2019

Posted on: March 24th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

The US Treasury yield curve has inverted as 3-month yield tops the 10-year yield. This is the first time that this has happened since 2007, and the WSJ noted that the move had preceded every recession since 1975. As the clock is ticking towards a new recession (or crisis?) the question on everybody`s lips is: […]

Romania – The next will be a government of sacrifice

Published at: 22-02-2019

Posted on: February 22nd, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

And that will happen irrespective of the political leanings of the party. This should not take us by surprise. It comes with the procyclical policies which have been the mainstay of Romania`s development over the last decades, a country that boasts the highest level of economic volatility in the EU. It brought on record growth […]

Who here wants euros?

Published at: 08-02-2019

Posted on: February 8th, 2019 by RaduC No Comments

Romania has a new target date to join the eurozone:2024. That was an occasion for me to update the graph that tracks the many deadlines to join the eurozone that Romania has had over the years. The arrows start from when the announcement was made and stop in the expected year of accession. As you […]

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