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Crisis or recession?

Published at: 07-12-2018

Posted on: December 7th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

There is a long-standing misunderstanding in the public mind. It must be corrected because it is significant. Many people ask when the next crisis is going to strike again, without clearly discriminating between recession and a full-blown crisis. A recession is due to follow relatively soon because it is part of cyclical economic changes which […]

Will Romania stay united?

Published at: 30-11-2018

Posted on: November 30th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

Such a question, asked on the 100th aniversary of the Great Unification, might be called a blasphemy. And yet, I believe that we would be seriously misguided to imagine that, no matter how the country is run, it is condemned to remain unchanged. It would be a grave mistake to imagine that the invaluable event […]

Is NBR still targeting inflation?

Published at: 23-11-2018

Posted on: November 23rd, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

In theory, the NBR (National Bank of Romania) has been aiming to hit inflation targets for more than a decade. In other words, every year it tried to stay inside the inflation range that it had previously announced. But there is quite a gap between theory and practice which is by no means a narrow […]

The illusion of a free lunch using chopsticks

Published at: 09-11-2018

Posted on: November 9th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

For some time now, Romania has been in the grasp of an illusion. It is based on the assumption that countries such as China or the Gulf states have so much cash available that their investment criteria are extremely loose.  Much more than the European requirements for granting development funds. To put it differently, they […]

Foreign funds plan to buy us cheap. Deal?

Published at: 02-11-2018

Posted on: November 2nd, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

In this post I would like to refer to a recent statement made in Bucharest by a Director of Amundi, the leading financial assets manager in Europe. According to press reports, he declared that doing away with the private pensions Pillar II „would be a very good thing for foreign institutional investors. The Bucharest Stock Exchange […]

Bu-cha-rest, not Bu-da-pest

Published at: 10-10-2018

Posted on: October 10th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

This is a confusion that I have often come across among foreign athletes or artists coming to Romania. A mix-up that the general public treated at times light-heartedly, and other times with indignation. A mix-up rarely made by foreign politicians. Until recently. And this time round with considerable implications and no connection to the speaker`s […]

The hypocrisy drowning in smoke our Planet

Published at: 05-10-2018

Posted on: October 5th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

I don`t think that we can build a pollution-free planet just on a voluntary change of behavior. This is a statement not likely to attract much sympathy. But frankly, I do believe that people will change their behavior on a massive scale only when driven by financial reasons. Many may do it on ethical grounds, […]

Welcome to the land of elders!

Published at: 21-09-2018

Posted on: September 21st, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

We live in a country which is aging and losing its population at an alarming rate. In the last 30 years the population fell by 3.5 million people and UN estimates show that by 2050 it will have lost another 3.3 million. That means that the country we live in will experience the 7th most […]

The inflation that nobody measures

Published at: 31-08-2018

Posted on: August 31st, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

Measuring inflation by keeping an eye on a basket of goods and services is not infallible. And that is not only due to the one-year delay in updating the consumer basket`s contents or because the contents vary with the population group. There are plenty other sources of distorting the real value of inflation. A frequent […]

Is Romania discriminated against by the credit rating agencies?

Published at: 24-08-2018

Posted on: August 24th, 2018 by RaduC No Comments

Romania`s credit ratings have never been the best compared with other countries in the region, either in absolute, or relative terms. This resulted in enough voices wondering on various occasions whether Romania might be discriminated against by the credit rating agencies in relation to its neighbors. A topic that I see resumed today. Let us […]

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